As a key water quality parameter, dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration, and particularly changes in bottom water DO is fundamental for understanding the biogeochemical processes in lake ecosystems. Based on two machine learning (ML) models, Gradient Boost Regressor (GBR) and long‐short‐term‐memory (LSTM) network, this study developed three ML model approaches: direct GBR; direct LSTM; and a 2‐step mixed ML model workflow combining both GBR and LSTM. They were used to simulate multi‐year surface and bottom DO concentrations in five lakes. All approaches were trained with readily available environmental data as predictors. Indices of lake thermal structure and mixing provided by a one‐dimensional (1‐D) hydrodynamic model were also included as predictors in the ML models. The advantages of each ML approach were not consistent for all the tested lakes, but the best one of them was defined that can estimate DO concentration with coefficient of determination (
- Award ID(s):
- 2025982
- PAR ID:
- 10571747
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- Lin, Shuqi; Pierson, Donald C; Ladwig, Robert; Kraemer, Benjamin M; Hu, Fenjuan_R S
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Geophysical Union
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth and Space Science
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 2333-5084
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
Longer duration of seasonal stratification contributes to widespread increases in lake hypoxia and anoxia
Jane, Stephen F. ; Mincer, Joshua L. ; Lau, Maximilian P. ; Lewis, Abigail S. L. ; Stetler, Jonathan T. ; Rose, Kevin C. ( , Global Change Biology)
Abstract The concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO) is an important attribute of aquatic ecosystems, influencing habitat, drinking water quality, biodiversity, nutrient biogeochemistry, and greenhouse gas emissions. While average summer DO concentrations are declining in lakes across the temperate zone, much remains unknown about seasonal factors contributing to deepwater DO losses. It is unclear whether declines are related to increasing rates of seasonal DO depletion or changes in seasonal stratification that limit re‐oxygenation of deep waters. Furthermore, despite the presence of important biological and ecological DO thresholds, there has been no large‐scale assessment of changes in the amount of habitat crossing these thresholds, limiting the ability to understand the consequences of observed DO losses. We used a dataset from >400 widely distributed lakes to identify the drivers of DO losses and quantify the frequency and volume of lake water crossing biologically and ecologically important threshold concentrations ranging from 5 to 0.5mg/L. Our results show that while there were no consistent changes over time in seasonal DO depletion rates, over three‐quarters of lakes exhibited an increase in the duration of stratification, providing more time for seasonal deepwater DO depletion to occur. As a result, most lakes have experienced summertime increases in the amount of water below all examined thresholds in deepwater DO concentration, with increases in the proportion of the water column below thresholds ranging between 0.9% and 1.7% per decade. In the 30‐day period preceding the end of stratification, increases were greater at >2.2% per decade and >70% of analyzed lakes experienced increases in the amount of oxygen‐depleted water. These results indicate ongoing climate‐induced increases in the duration of stratification have already contributed to reduction of habitat for many species, likely increased internal nutrient loading, and otherwise altered lake chemistry. Future warming is likely to exacerbate these trends.
more» «less
-
Remote collection of microorganisms at two depths in a freshwater lake using an unmanned surface vehicle (USV)
Powers, Craig ; Hanlon, Regina ; Schmale III, David G. ( , PeerJ)
Microorganisms are ubiquitous in freshwater aquatic environments, but little is known about their abundance, diversity, and transport. We designed and deployed a remote-operated water-sampling system onboard an unmanned surface vehicle (USV, a remote-controlled boat) to collect and characterize microbes in a freshwater lake in Virginia, USA. The USV collected water samples simultaneously at 5 and 50 cm below the surface of the water at three separate locations over three days in October, 2016. These samples were plated on a non-selective medium (TSA) and on a medium selective for the genus
Pseudomonas (KBC) to estimate concentrations of culturable bacteria in the lake. Mean concentrations ranged from 134 to 407 CFU/mL for microbes cultured on TSA, and from 2 to 8 CFU/mL for microbes cultured on KBC. There was a significant difference in the concentration of microbes cultured on KBC across three sampling locations in the lake (P = 0.027), suggesting an uneven distribution ofPseudomonas across the locations sampled. There was also a significant difference in concentrations of microbes cultured on TSA across the three sampling days (P = 0.038), demonstrating daily fluctuations in concentrations of culturable bacteria. There was no significant difference in concentrations of microbes cultured on TSA (P = 0.707) and KBC (P = 0.641) across the two depths sampled, suggesting microorganisms were well-mixed between 5 and 50 cm below the surface of the water. About 1 percent (7/720) of the colonies recovered across all four sampling missions were ice nucleation active (ice+) at temperatures warmer than −10°C. Our work extends traditional manned observations of aquatic environments to unmanned systems, and highlights the potential for USVs to understand the distribution and diversity of microbes within and above freshwater aquatic environments.more» «less
-
Prediction of lake depth across a 17-state region in the United States
Oliver, Samantha K. ; Soranno, Patricia A. ; Fergus, C. Emi ; Wagner, Tyler ; Winslow, Luke A. ; Scott, Caren E. ; Webster, Katherine E. ; Downing, John A. ; Stanley, Emily H. ( , Inland waters)
Lake depth is an important characteristic for understanding many lake processes, yet it is unknown for the vast majority of lakes globally. Our objective was to develop a model that predicts lake depth using map-derived metrics of lake and terrestrial geomorphic features. Building on previous models that use local topography to predict lake depth, we hypothesized that regional differences in topography, lake shape, or sedimentation processes could lead to region-specific relationships between lake depth and the mapped features. We therefore used a mixed modeling approach that included region-specific model parameters. We built models using lake and map data from LAGOS, which includes 8164 lakes with maximum depth (Zmax) observations. The model was used to predict depth for all lakes ≥4 ha (n = 42 443) in the study extent. Lake surface area and maximum slope in a 100 m buffer were the best predictors of Zmax. Interactions between surface area and topography occurred at both the local and regional scale; surface area had a larger effect in steep terrain, so large lakes embedded in steep terrain were much deeper than those in flat terrain. Despite a large sample size and inclusion of regional variability, model performance (R2 = 0.29, RMSE = 7.1 m) was similar to other published models. The relative error varied by region, however, highlighting the importance of taking a regional approach to lake depth modeling. Additionally, we provide the largest known collection of observed and predicted lake depth values in the United States.
more» «less
-
Response of Green Lake, Wisconsin, to Changes in Phosphorus Loading, With Special Emphasis on Near-Surface Total Phosphorus Concentrations and Metalimnetic Dissolved Oxygen Minima
Robertson, D.M. ( , Scientific investigations report)
Green Lake is the deepest natural inland lake in Wisconsin, with a maximum depth of about 72 meters. In the early 1900s, the lake was believed to have very good water quality (low nutrient concentrations and good water clarity) with low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations occurring in only the deepest part of the lake. Because of increased phosphorus (P) inputs from anthropogenic activities in its watershed, total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake have increased; these changes have led to increased algal production and low DO concentrations not only in the deepest areas but also in the middle of the water column (metalimnion). The U.S. Geological Survey has routinely monitored the lake since 2004 and its tributaries since 1988. Results from this monitoring led the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) to list the lake as impaired because of low DO concentrations in the metalimnion, and they identified elevated TP concentrations as the cause of impairment.As part of this study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Green Lake Sanitary District, the lake and its tributaries were comprehensively sampled in 2017–18 to augment ongoing monitoring that would further describe the low DO concentrations in the lake (especially in the metalimnion). Empirical and process-driven water-quality models were then used to determine the causes of the low DO concentrations and the magnitudes of P-load reductions needed to improve the water quality of the lake enough to meet multiple water-quality goals, including the WDNR’s criteria for TP and DO.Data from previous studies showed that DO concentrations in the metalimnion decreased slightly as summer progressed in the early 1900s but, since the late 1970s, have typically dropped below 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L), which is the WDNR criterion for impairment. During 2014–18 (the baseline period for this study), the near-surface geometric mean TP concentration during June–September in the east side of the lake was 0.020 mg/L and in the west side was 0.016 mg/L (both were above the 0.015-mg/L WDNR criterion for the lake), and the metalimnetic DO minimum concentrations (MOMs) measured in August ranged from 1.0 to 4.7 mg/L. The degradation in water quality was assumed to have been caused by excessive P inputs to the lake; therefore, the TP inputs to the lake were estimated. The mean annual external P load during 2014–18 was estimated to be 8,980 kilograms per year (kg/yr), of which monitored and unmonitored tributary inputs contributed 84 percent, atmospheric inputs contributed 8 percent, waterfowl contributed 7 percent, and septic systems contributed 1 percent. During fall turnover, internal sediment recycling contributed an additional 7,040 kilograms that increased TP concentrations in shallow areas of the lake by about 0.020 mg/L. The elevated TP concentrations then persisted until the following spring. On an annual basis, however, there was a net deposition of P to the bottom sediments.Empirical models were used to describe how the near-surface water quality of Green Lake would be expected to respond to changes in external P loading. Predictions from the models showed a relatively linear response between P loading and TP and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in the lake, with the changes in TP and Chl-a concentrations being less on a percentage basis (50–60 percent for TP and 30–70 percent for Chl-a) than the changes in P loading. Mean summer water clarity, quantified by Secchi disk depths, had a greater response to decreases in P loading than to increases in P loading. Based on these relations, external P loading to the lake would need to be decreased from 8,980 kg/yr to about 5,460 kg/yr for the geometric mean June–September TP concentration in the east side of the lake, with higher TP concentrations than in the west side, to reach the WDNR criterion of 0.015 mg/L. This reduction of 3,520 kg/yr is equivalent to a 46-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external P sources (all external sources except for precipitation, atmospheric deposition, and waterfowl) from those measured during water years 2014–18. The total external P loading would need to decrease to 7,680 kg/yr (a 17-percent reduction in potentially controllable external P sources) for near-surface June–September TP concentrations in the west side of the lake to reach 0.015 mg/L. Total external P loading would need to decrease to 3,870–5,320 kg/yr for the lake to be classified as oligotrophic, with a near-surface June–September TP concentration of 0.012 mg/L.Results from the hydrodynamic water-quality model GLM–AED (General Lake Model coupled to the Aquatic Ecodynamics modeling library) indicated that MOMs are driven by external P loading and internal sediment recycling that lead to high TP concentrations during spring and early summer, which in turn lead to high phytoplankton production, high metabolism and respiration, and ultimately DO consumption in the upper, warmer areas of the metalimnion. GLM–AED results indicated that settling of organic material during summer might be slowed by the colder, denser, and more viscous water in the metalimnion and thus increase DO consumption. Based on empirical evidence from a comparison of MOMs with various meteorological, hydrologic, water quality, and in-lake physical factors, MOMs were lower during summers, when metalimnetic water temperatures were warmer, near-surface Chl-a and TP concentrations were higher, and Secchi depths were lower. GLM–AED results indicated that the external P load would need to be reduced to about 4,060 kg/yr, a 57-percent reduction from that measured in 2014–18, to eliminate the occurrence of MOMs less than 5 mg/L during more than 75 percent of the years (the target provided by the WDNR).Large reductions in external P loading are expected to have an immediate effect on the near-surface TP concentrations and metalimnetic DO concentrations in Green Lake; however, it may take several years for the full effects of the external-load reduction to be observed because internal sediment recycling is an important source of P for the following spring.
more» «less
-
Anoxia begets anoxia: A positive feedback to the deoxygenation of temperate lakes
Lewis, Abigail S. L. ; Lau, Maximilian P. ; Jane, Stephen F. ; Rose, Kevin C. ; Be'eri‐Shlevin, Yaron ; Burnet, Sarah H. ; Clayer, François ; Feuchtmayr, Heidrun ; Grossart, Hans‐Peter ; Howard, Dexter W. ; et al ( , Global Change Biology)
Abstract Declining oxygen concentrations in the deep waters of lakes worldwide pose a pressing environmental and societal challenge. Existing theory suggests that low deep‐water dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations could trigger a positive feedback through which anoxia (i.e., very low DO) during a given summer begets increasingly severe occurrences of anoxia in following summers. Specifically, anoxic conditions can promote nutrient release from sediments, thereby stimulating phytoplankton growth, and subsequent phytoplankton decomposition can fuel heterotrophic respiration, resulting in increased spatial extent and duration of anoxia. However, while the individual relationships in this feedback are well established, to our knowledge, there has not been a systematic analysis within or across lakes that simultaneously demonstrates all of the mechanisms necessary to produce a positive feedback that reinforces anoxia. Here, we compiled data from 656 widespread temperate lakes and reservoirs to analyze the proposed anoxia begets anoxia feedback. Lakes in the dataset span a broad range of surface area (1–126,909 ha), maximum depth (6–370 m), and morphometry, with a median time‐series duration of 30 years at each lake. Using linear mixed models, we found support for each of the positive feedback relationships between anoxia, phosphorus concentrations, chlorophyll
a concentrations, and oxygen demand across the 656‐lake dataset. Likewise, we found further support for these relationships by analyzing time‐series data from individual lakes. Our results indicate that the strength of these feedback relationships may vary with lake‐specific characteristics: For example, we found that surface phosphorus concentrations were more positively associated with chlorophylla in high‐phosphorus lakes, and oxygen demand had a stronger influence on the extent of anoxia in deep lakes. Taken together, these results support the existence of a positive feedback that could magnify the effects of climate change and other anthropogenic pressures driving the development of anoxia in lakes around the world.more» «less
